How every number is computed

The analyst team

Every analysis runs the same pipeline, whatever the ticker:

• Four analyst desks gather evidence independently - technicals (price/volume history), fundamentals (filings and financials), news, and sentiment (retail chatter, analyst actions).
• A bull and a bear debate the same evidence - verbatim in every report's debate room. Neither sees the conclusion first.
• A risk committee rules - aggressive, conservative and neutral readers argue sizing and the judge issues the BUY / SELL / HOLD.
• A discipline gate reviews the call - deterministic, non-LLM rules (market regime, trend posture) can hold a BUY to HOLD. When it intervenes, the report says so.

Models are metered and every dollar of compute is attributed in our internal ledger. Analyses are AI-generated and can be wrong - that's why everything below exists.

How calls are scored

• Every published call is forward-scored from its publication date - never backfilled, never edited, losses included.
• Returns are simulated against realized prices and benchmarked to SPY over the same window. A BUY "hits" when it beats SPY; a SELL "hits" when it trails SPY.
• We don't headline a stat until there are at least 12 scored calls, and any figure we quote carries its sample size and start date.
• Simulated forward returns are not tradeable results: no slippage, no taxes, no execution. Past performance guarantees nothing.

Parallax Score

• A gradient-boosted model over price/volume features, retrained weekly, walk-forward validated with purged splits (no look-ahead).
• The validation number (AUC) is printed on the score page - currently near 0.50, i.e. price-only features don't predict 3-month returns. We show the score's momentum/trend content anyway, labeled for what it is, and the number will change only when the model earns it.
• Every nightly score is stored, so the deciles build a public forward record.

The desks

• Insiders & Congress - SEC Form 4 and STOCK Act disclosures, as filed. We show clusters (several insiders buying) because single filings are noisy.
• Options flow & dark pool - public tape data, flagged by premium size and urgency. Big prints show conviction, not identity or intent.
• Scanners - mechanical filters (momentum, CANSLIM, golden crosses, oversold…) recomputed nightly over ~8 years of daily history. Strict by design; empty results are shown as empty.
• Maritime - live AIS ship positions from a community network plus paid chokepoint sweeps. Destinations and draughts are crew-reported; cargo manifests are private and we say so on the map.
• Confluence - a count of independent desks lit on a name. It weighs nothing and predicts nothing by itself; it's a reading list, ranked.
• Wheel tracker & portfolio X-ray - arithmetic on trades you enter, marked against delayed quotes. The safe-withdrawal number is 70% of trailing 90-day realized income, held at $0 when open losses exceed that income.

What we don't do

• No broker connections, no order placement, no custody - ever. Read-only by construction.
• No personalized advice. Everything here is automated, impersonal, educational research.
• No editing history. Calls, scores and scans stand as published.

Questions about any number → support@parallaxresearch.io. Full terms on the Terms page.