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Macro briefing

A daily regime read from thousands of geopolitical and market events - top risks and cross-asset implications before the open.

Regime: transitional - equities are pricing risk-on but the bond market (10Y/30Y selloff), carry unwind signals in JPY, and gold weakness collectively

Top risk: [HIGH CONVICTION] JPY carry unwind cascade: USD/JPY -2% in a single session is a regime-level move. If BOJ is intervening or if leveraged ca

[HIGH CONVICTION] Long-end rates breakout: 30Y at 5.25% and 10Y approaching 4.80% puts pressure on equity multiples, particularly for duration-sensiti

[MODERATE] Gold reversal as a sentiment signal: Gold at $4,445 down 1%+ while equities rally hard could indicate forced liquidation or margin calls so

[MODERATE] Crude oil weakness (-0.94% WTI, -0.75% Brent) despite elevated geopolitical baseline suggests demand concerns are re-emerging or a supply r

[LOW BUT WATCH] Wheat -2.66% in a single session: Sharp agricultural move with no accompanying geopolitical signal is unusual. Could reflect weather n

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